Is The Gulf War Imminent?

The United States government has requested its citizens to abandon Iraq as soon as possible. In the past, foreigners might have been kidnapped by Iraq and used as human shields to protect a range of strategic places. If the military invasion of Iraq is executed, the US government does not want any of the bombs falling on Iraq to hurt its own people.

Indonesia is in a dilemma. On one hand, whether the war happens or not is out of the Indonesian government’s control. In terms of global politics, like it or not, Indonesia is not a player to be listened to. But if the war were to occur, the result would be to change the domestic political landscape of Indonesia—a political affect which should be anticipated.

If the Gulf War occurs, other political issues in Indonesia would become dreary at once. If likened to a political hit list countdown, the “album” of the Gulf War would become the new comer and become top of the charts. Other political and economic issues which are currently popular will be displaced President Megawati, Indonesian Democratic Party (PDIP), and her supporters will gain time to take a few breaths. The student movements and political elites who want to overthrow Megawati will loose their momentum. Even though they will try and maintain their protests, the national attention will shift to the Gulf War instead.

The parties which have a revolutionary desire to overthrow Megawati before May 2003 would be dissappointed. , Nevertheless, the opposition mobilization against Mega is highly organized. The student movement is consolidating and widening beyond the Jakarta-Bogor-Tangerang-Bekasi area thoug in the districts, the student movement has been netted. Similarly, the Islamic opposition and nationalist and labor parties are merging. This growing movement realizes that the big parties in parliament do not support deposing Megawati in mid-term. But, if the extra-parliamentary pressure widens, they believe that the scenario of May 1998 could be repeated and Megawati overthrown as Suharto was before her.

Ironically, this movement would be interrupted not by Megawati’s supporter counter movement, but by the Gulf War. Yet, the Gulf War would take a long time. From the beginning of war up to the regime’s change in Iraq, if that is the target, is predicted to take more than two months. During that time, the gulf war would be the national attention. The intensity of the opposition’s movement toward Megawati consequently would be faded before reaching the climax.

Not only would the issue of Megawati’s deposition be thrown out of the national political stage but other issues would also be jettisoned. For example, in the Indosat case, the electoral law, release and discharge of corrupt tycoons and the plan for the formation of a constitutional committee formation would be thrown out as well, at least for a while. The Gulf War would become the new black hole swallowing up domestic political issues.

Nevertheless, the police would still be busy and would keep on facing the same protest actions, which might be far bigger, but focused on different issues. The Gulf War issue might be a more emotional and even become overwhelming.

Sensationalism

Many things cause the Gulf War to be newsworthy and to consume the press’s attention. The war itself is sensational news. National leaders vie for world opinion. In this high stakes war, all parties maneuver to gain the widest support. The war over opnions is a sexy issue for the press.

Furthermore, the war might turn out to be a massacre. Tears, suffering, blood will all be exploited by the conflicting parties. Mothers losing husbands. Fathers losing children. Brothers and sisters losing their beloved ones. These stories will be covered vividly and will become the materials for winning over public sentiment.

In addition, the Gulf War might mobilize religious sentiments. Intentionally or not, various parties could utilize the Islamic sentiment to build upon anti-US solidarity. Circumstances would be more dramatic, heroic, and impulsive such that the resistance against US would be blown up as a religious struggle and jihad.

Hard choice

If the Gulf War occurs, the US is predicted to defeat Iraq within weeks. Saddam Hussein would be overthrown and changed by another leader approved by the US. The regime change scenario in Afghanistan will be repeated in Iraq.

Though the military battle is incontestable, the US would not easily win the public’s minds and hearts. The majority of the world’s people, particularly in the Muslim countries, would not thank the US for ridding Iraq of a dictator. Nor would they thank them for destroying the Iraq weapons of mass destruction.

On the contrary, the hatred toward the US would increase. The US attack, moreover if it were executed unilaterally without the UN’s authorization, would be seen as the arrogance of the American superpower. Even the people who are moderate and neutral towards the US would be angry. The anti US movement all over the world, especially in the Muslim countries, would broaden.

Once more, Indonesia would be confused. The Indonesian government would be stuck in the middle. On one hand, the Indonesian government needs US support. On the other hand, the anti US movement in Indonesia is also widening.

It is the Gulf War a hot potato for Megawati? On one hand, this war could save Megawati because the current political issues would shift. On the other hand, if the government responds inapropriately, the Gulf War could even increase the opposition’s ammunition for the removal of Megawati.

Denny JA PhD, Executive
Director of Jayabaya University and Academy foundation, Jakarta

(Translated by Lanny Octavia, edited by Jonathan Zilberg)